The 2013 NFL Draft, and mock draft, season is wrapping up. I have to say that this has been one tough year to try and nail down what is going to happen. There are just so many players with similar talent levels, with many positions having several guys that could be interchangeable with one another. It’s really going to come down to how the individual teams have their boards set up. Of course there is the issue mockers wrestle with of not including trades. There will certainly be QBs in the first round, however the way the picks line up right now there are not many matches in the first round with actual QB talent.

It always cracks me up when people point out how “this” and “that” won’t happen because “this” and”that” will happen because of a trade. We know…the mock drafts are an exercise in how picks could come off the board with the current order. Not so much a prediction of what will actually happen.

Anyway, it’s all in fun. Here are some things found in the final three round update…

There have been 69 changes since the last update…

• 20 picks changed in first round.
• 21 picks changed in second round.
• 28 changes in the third round.

Offensive and defensive line make up 14 of the first round picks.

The third round has four RBs come off the board.

Third round also sees a run on TE.

Thanks for hanging out for the season! For the FANTASY FOOTBALL players out there, I want to invite you over to my new blog for 2013. I will be returning to the Fantasy Football blogging scene this season with Fantasy Football Scheme. It’s pretty much a blog about helping you win. You should be there.

Check out the final mock draft HERE.

The last couple of weeks I have been filling my fantasy football writing fix with a few some commentary on what to expect from the 2012 rookies heading into the season. There are a couple of late round Quarterback sleeper possibilities. There are two potential running back rookies who could make your starting lineup to start the season, with potential of some of their 2012 NFL Draft classmates joining them down the road. What about catching the football? Let’s have a look at the Wide Receivers and Tight Ends in this year’s class from a re-draft perspective…

Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars

Justin Blackmon will be the rookie Wide Receiver that will likely go first off of fantasy draft boards. Something that we know going into each season is that there will be some rookie pass catchers that bring in some fantasy points. Some can make decent WR2 options for a chunk of the season (WR1 in given weeks). What is not always certain is a correlation between how early the WR went in the NFL Draft, and their overall talent at the position. More often than not, it is the situation they land in. Enter concerns with Blackmon. He is certainly talented, and will likely be a fantasy force someday. BUT, there is more to worry about than going for him when fantasy football is concerned.

There is the obvious obstacle with the recent DUI arrest.  Another obvious point would be Maurice Jones-Drew getting touches. Aside from that, there is the issue that Blaine Gabbert is likely to be his QB, and the whole having a contract and getting into camp thing.

Realistically, you will not be looking at Blackmon as a consistent contributing force on your fantasy squad anyway. In a 12 team league, he may get some WR3 time to start the season. If that is what you have in mind, look at him after your starting roster is filled.

Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals

Another name that will be considered on fantasy draft day based on his NFL Draft stock. Floyd is in a position that is worse than Blackmon, aside from legal troubles. The Cardinals are still not set on who their QB is going to be. While we know for certain that Floyd will not be the #1 WR in Arizona as long as Larry Fitzgerald is around, he may not even make the starting lineup to start the season. The Cardinals appear to be leaning Andre Roberts at the #2 position, and there is still Early Doucet to consider in the slot. Look at one of the old Moss boys, (Randy, Santana) at the position you would have considered Floyd.

Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans

If it had not been for size, some thought that Kendall Wright may have been the best WR prospect in the 2012 NFL Draft. There is a chance that he may be in the best fantasy football position of the pass catchers. Kenny Britt is doing everything in his power to give Wright playing time with his recent arrest. Despite that, Britt is still recovering from last year’s knee injury, and Wright is expected to fill his starting spot. A fantasy owner can feel good landing Wright late as a WR3 or WR4, knowing there will be weeks you are getting a WR2 on your team.

The Rest

The Giants’ Rueben Randle is worth watching on the wire or a very late round pick. The Giants will place people where they can succeed and if he shows he can, he will get his chances. Stephen Hill is slotted to start with the Jets, but is dealing with a hamstring he should shake by camp. Brian Quick is the guy with the Rams. You take Rams WRs when desperate. Keep an eye on Quick for when you are, because he will be leaned on as the guy in St. Louis.

Tight End

Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts

The only Tight End worth mentioning at this time is Coby Fleener with the Colts. There is the obvious relationship with Andrew Luck going back to Stanford. There is the obvious emphasis on the athletic TE after the seasons had by Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. All exciting stuff, but have perspective and don’t look at him too early, and certainly not as a TE1 to start the season. This is the type of guy that I don’t usually land late because someone else over pays with an earlier pick.

In fantasy football, the running back position is the safest bet when looking at rookies to add to your squad. Ball carriers tend to have the easiest transition into the NFL on game day. Problem is just getting the carries, especially in these days of shared loads. This season looks to shape up like those recent years, with a bell cow and some potential sleepers. The dynasty/keeper game is one thing. Let’s look at the position when thinking re-draft leagues…

Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns

Wait until Trent Richardson is the starter. That is what people usually said in Mark Ingram discussions at Alabama. He lived up to the hype, enough that the Browns have decided that he is the guy to rest the franchise on. His anticipated workload has fantasy owners excited. There are not a lot of three-down backs working the NFL these days, and he is expected to be one. This could cause other owners to put a high value on him. However, he can’t do it alone and questions in the passing game will have opponents looking at stopping the run first.

Caution aside, Richardson is the safest rookie running back bet in 2012. The question is how much stock you want to put into him. Currently, at Fantasy Football Calculator, Richardson’s Average Draft Position (ADP) has him landing at the second pick in the second round in general scoring 12 team leagues. This is the 10th running back taken, tied with DeMarco Murray, in the area of Marshawn Lynch, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, and Adrian Peterson. A great group of names, but this is a group with fantasy questions surrounding them (injuries, contracts, lack of faith in doing it again). Advice is to keep an eye on these guys in training camp to gauge who is safer. Richardson is certainly the freshest of the bunch, and there should be plenty of positive media around him leading up to draft time. This could make your leaguemates bite early, so if you want him it may have to be before the late second round.

Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Doug Martin is the guy that you will see hanging around the board, wondering if you should swipe him up. if you draft just before the season, chances are his stock will have risen by then due to his winning the starting job in training camp.The Bucs should be improved on offense this season with additions on the line and receiving game. That lines Martin up for a season that could surprise. Of course, he will always have LeGarrette Blount lurking, stealing those goaline carries.

Martin comes in with an ADP of 4.05. This is the area that role players with potential, handcuffs, and injury concern backs are hanging out. Chances are you have a lead RB (or two), a WR (or two), and possibly a QB by now, making this pick one that won’t break your team if you take the shot. You will never feel as comfortable starting him as Trent Richardson, but you didn’t use a 2nd round pick on him either. By the end of the season, Martin could have better fantasy numbers.

The Rest…

Once you get past Trent Richardson and Doug Martin, the rest of the rookie running back options will be drafted in the later rounds. At this point, David Wilson (ADP 9.08), Ronnie Hillman (ADP 10.05), and Isaiah Pead (ADP 11.10) are draftable, but could be drops hanging on the waiver wire in early weeks. watch Wilson’s stock in camp, and of course, see how Steven Jackson is holding up when looking at Pead.

ADP Source: Fantasy Football Calculator

Usually by this time of year I am knee-deep in writing fantasy football profiles and rankings. When I started NFL Draft Net, I told myself I was hanging up the fantasy football cleats. See how long that lasted? I just can’t stay away. Well, I guess adding some fantasy football in here during the slow time for draft news is better than trying to maintain a whole site dedicated to it. Let’s move on…

Today, I want to take a look at some of the rookie quarterbacks from the fantasy football angle. First off, let’s not get too excited after the seasons that Cam Newton and Andy Dalton had last year. Remember they were facing some scaled down defenses due to the lack of training camp and prep. With that, lets look at who you should and should not consider in 2012…

Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins

Chances are that Griffin will be off the board before you take him. That is okay, because he is likely to be overvalued based on 1) comparisons to Cam Newton, 2) his NFL draft position, and 3) his Heisman. Of these three reasons, the first one has the most fantasy relevance. Griffin could be potentially more dangerous with his feet, and could have a better supporting cast. However, as mentioned before, he will not be facing defenses that had a messed up offseason due to the lockout of 2011. You can bet that at least the Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles will be aptly prepared for RG3.

So what do you do with this guy? You could take him as your starter if you are one of the last guys to take a QB, possibly platoon him with someone else. He will likely perform around the same range as someone like Matt Ryan or Ben Roethlisberger, so if we look at those guys as possible starters we can with RG3 as well. Not the ideal situation though. Be smart about selecting your backup QB. These days it is more and more important to have a solid QB in fantasy football. If you are not comfortable with that, RGIII could make for a solid backup and bye week filler. There is potential that he takes off too. With that, you may select him as your backup a little earlier than you might take one if the rest of your league has filled their starters and he is still available.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

Like RG3, Luck will get some early fantasy looks due to his draft position and being an outstanding college football player. Don’t be the guy looking too soon. Don’t feel bad if someone else takes him, because like RG3 it will probably be too soon. Instead, look at who dropped because a leaguemate jumped too soon.

The Colts are undergoing a major rebuilding on both sides of the ball. If enough of your league pays attention to that, he could fall as far as going undrafted in 10-12 team leagues. If you are fielding one of the elite fantasy QBs, or someone you are comfortable with that doesn’t tend to miss time due to injury, you may be able to grab luck with your last pick, freeing up the earlier picks at other positions. He could be involved in shootouts in week 5 (Packers) and 11 (Patriots). This could make a bye week filler for owners with Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, and Eli Manning.

The Rest…

So, obviously, if Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck are so-so, last resort starters, bye week filler, possible sleeper type guys, we know not to expect too much of Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill from a fantasy football perspective. They should not even be on your draft list unless you are in a 16 or more team league. Even then, you need to watch to be sure they are even starting for their team. In the future we may take a look at the keeper and dynasty potential, but until then, watch them and think about next year.